At a Glance

Program: Tax Analysis & Revenue Forecasting

Dates: June 24 - July 20, 2012

Location: Duke University, Durham, NC, U.S.

Duration: Four weeks

Cost: $10,250 USD

Target Audience: This program has been especially created for: public-sector executives at mid- and upper-levels of management; officials in tax administration, ministries of finance, and any other revenue-raising agencies; professionals in multilateral and regional banks and other international organizations involved with fiscal affairs; private-sector professionals who are in a position to apply these concepts and techniques; and consultants providing assistance to decision makers in public and private sectors.

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Testimonial

"The Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting program has proven to be of great benefit to me as it equipped me with tools to adapt and apply to projecting tax revenues for my country's annual budget exercise. The experience of meeting like-minded professionals of other countries has been extremely rewarding as contact is still maintained with fellow participants. Even the staff of DCID continued to provide advice after I returned to my country and attempted to implement some of the models learnt."

Carol Bickram
Acting Senior Economist, Ministry of Trade and Industry, Trinidad and Tobago
Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting, 2005

Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting


The Program

The Duke Center for International Development (DCID) will conduct the training program on Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting (TARF) at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, U.S., June 24 – July 20, 2012. The four-week Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting workshop covers the economic foundations of tax policy, revenue forecasting, statistical techniques, and computer-based revenue estimation models for the value-added tax, personal and corporate income tax, excises, property tax, trade taxes, and taxes on natural resources. The application of macroeconomic models, micro-simulation models and typical taxpayer models are also covered.

Download a 2012 Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting training course brochure

Program Background

Tax analysis and revenue forecasting have become increasingly important functions as governments undertake reforms of their tax systems to enhance revenues, improve the equity and efficiency of taxes, and promote investment, economic growth, and exports. In addition, fiscal and tax policy stability are increasingly recognized as key to promoting private-sector investment, both domestic and foreign.

The importance of having the capacity to deal with these key tax policy issues has prompted governments in an increasing number of countries to seek the development of in-house skills and aptitudes in tax analysis and revenue forecasting.

The Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting training program, now in its eleventh year at Duke University, was formerly offered at the Harvard Institute for International Development, by the Public Finance Group (PFG). The PFG and the program moved to DCID at Duke University in 2001. The faculty in this group have been involved in some of the best-known tax reforms around the world and have a combined experience of more than 75 years of research and advisory work in the field.

Goals

The Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting training course is designed to:
  • Equip participants with the theoretical foundations for analyzing tax systems and hands-on techniques for evaluating their revenue performance
  • Enable participants to assess and quantify impacts of alternative fiscal policies on a variety of economic entities
  • Instruct participants in the use of micro-simulation and macroeconomic models for effective tax analysis and revenue forecasting
  • Build an international network of professionals to enhance understanding and experience sharing
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Methods of Study

The study method is a combination of class lectures, case studies, group exercises and presentations, discussion sessions, and hands-on computer exercises. A typical day starts with lectures covering theoretical aspects followed by practical computer-based applications that enable participants to immediately apply and absorb the subject matter.

Additionally, all participants are expected to complete a major tax modeling and forecasting exercise that is directly applicable to work in the agency or department where they are employed in their country or organization. This exercise is based on real tax data brought by participants and is completed individually or in groups of two to three participants.

The course includes a significant amount of hands-on computer work, and it is helpful if the participants have a basic understanding of personal computers, spreadsheets, and word processing. During the program, each participant has the use of a laptop computer and access to the internet and university network resources.

What topics will be covered?

Tax Analysis
  • Principles of taxation
  • Tax reform and its implementation
  • Economic impact of taxes and subsidies
  • Consumption and expenditure taxes
  • Taxes on international trade
  • Taxation of income
  • International tax harmonization
  • Wealth and asset taxation
  • Property and real estate taxes
  • Taxation and natural resources
  • Taxation of financial sectors
  • Taxation of e-commerce
  • Inflation and taxation
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Revenue Forecasting
  • Value-added tax, excises
  • Trade tax
  • Personal income taxes
  • Corporate income taxes
  • Taxes on natural resources
  • Property taxes
    •

Computer Applications
  • Introduction to computers and computerization
  • Microcomputers in revenue forecasting
    •

Empirical Techniques and Models
  • Micro-simulation models
  • Typical taxpayer model
  • Macroeconomic models
  • GDP-based forecasting models
  • Regression analysis
  • Sampling techniques
  • Consumer expenditure surveys
  • Receipts model
    •

Special Topics may include:
  • Risk management of tax compliance
  • Transfer pricing and international dispute resolution
  • Tax competition and corporate taxation
  • Overview of tax treaties for double tax avoidance
    •
Housing and Activities

Local housing accommodations and a daily shuttle to and from campus are included in the program. Group extracurricular activities are organized to offer you the opportunity to socialize with your classmates and enjoy area attractions. Taxis, buses, and other transportation options are available for hire to provide individual access to local destinations.

Faculty

Leading the workshop is Dr. GP Shukla, joined by other senior Duke faculty members representing various disciplines and perspectives. Senior practitioners dealing with issues of tax analysis and revenue forecasting in governments, international agencies, and other prominent universities in the United States are also involved in the workshop.

Admission Policy and Application Process

The Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting training program is open to individuals working professionally in tax policy, tax administration, economics, finance, accounting, management, or other related fields. These include public and private sector executives, officials of revenue authorities and ministries of finance, professionals in multilateral and regional banks, and consultants providing assistance to decision makers in public and private sectors. A candidate’s professional experience is taken into consideration. A first degree (bachelor’s or other undergraduate equivalent) is preferred. The program is conducted in English. Interested candidates should complete the online application form. We strongly recommend that application be made as early as possible to allow sufficient time to obtain a visa for the United States.

Applications will be reviewed as they are received and qualified applicants will be admitted on a rolling basis until all available positions are filled. You should contact the DCID office if you do not receive confirmation of receipt of your application within 5 working days. Applications received after May 24, 2012 may be placed on a waiting list and admitted on a space-available basis.

Tuition and Funding

Tuition for the program is $10,250, which includes housing, emergency medical insurance, course materials, use of a laptop computer for the duration of the program and access to the Duke University Libraries and computer facilities. Tuition does not cover airfare to and from Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU), meals, or incidental expenses, which vary for each participant. Expenses for meals and incidentals are estimated at $50 per day. Additional expenses that may be incurred can include: taxis, other local transportation costs, and excess baggage and/or shipping charges.

Participants are typically sponsored by their employer or a funding organization. Candidates should approach their current employer or other funding organizations as soon as possible in order to arrange financial support. Examples of agencies that offer financial assistance for training include the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the World Bank, regional development banks, bilateral donors such as the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), and development-oriented foundations. In most cases, participants’ employers should apply to the branch or mission of the funding agency in their country (not in the U.S.) for training funds.

For the 2012 program on Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting, scholarships and financial aid are not available from Duke University or DCID. Discounts are available for organizations sponsoring three or more participants in the program. Please contact DCID for more information regarding group discounts.

For more information about Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting, please contact us.